ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultIncognito ban
40%50%
Incognito · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 0 maps
Dust2Zomblers ban
50%40%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%Zomblers · 1 map
InfernoZomblers pick
50%60%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 1 map
NukeIncognito pick
50%40%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIncognito remove Default
2. BanZomblers remove Dust2
3. PickIncognito take Nuke
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Incognito 63%Zomblers 37%
The model gave 63% on Incognito — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Incognito 47%Zomblers 53%
The model gave 53% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteZomblers · 54%
Series resultZomblers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2