FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
InControl#154 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
50%40%
InControl · 0 mapsedge InControl +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
NukeInControl ban
50%60%
InControl · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
OverpassInControl pick
50%60%
InControl · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInControl remove Nuke
2. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
3. PickInControl take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
InControl 43%Chicken Coop 57%
The model gave 57% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by InControl.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
InControl 47%Chicken Coop 53%
The model gave 53% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
InControl 60%Chicken Coop 40%
The model gave 60% on InControl — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteInControl · 55%
Series resultChicken Coop 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3