LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
56%71%
INFINITE · 14 mapsedge Fluxo +15%Fluxo · 20 maps
NukeFluxo pick
40%63%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +23%Fluxo · 28 maps
Dust2possible decider
31%53%
INFINITE · 12 mapsedge Fluxo +22%Fluxo · 15 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
40%56%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +16%Fluxo · 14 maps
CacheFluxo ban
50%53%
INFINITE · 4 mapsnearly even -3%Fluxo · 13 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%47%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge Fluxo +7%Fluxo · 11 maps
AncientFluxo ban
42%50%
INFINITE · 8 mapsedge Fluxo +8%Fluxo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanFluxo remove Ancient
3. PickINFINITE take Mirage
4. PickFluxo take Nuke
5. BanFluxo remove Cache
6. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (31% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct20:22
INFINITE 31%Fluxo 69%
The model gave 69% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
INFINITE 32%Fluxo 68%
The model gave 68% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 60%
Series resultFluxo 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2