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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
50%56%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +6%Inner Circle Academy · 23 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%52%
INFINITE · 6 mapsnearly even -2%Inner Circle Academy · 19 maps
MirageINFINITE pick
47%57%
INFINITE · 13 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
46%44%
INFINITE · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Inner Circle Academy · 12 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%59%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +19%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
CacheINFINITE ban
50%56%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +6%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickINFINITE take Mirage
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanINFINITE remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
INFINITE 42%Inner Circle Academy 58%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
INFINITE 43%Inner Circle Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
INFINITE 50%Inner Circle Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 62%
Series resultINFINITE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3