Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#56 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
50%68%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +18%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
53%33%
INFINITE · 15 mapsedge INFINITE +20%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
43%50%
INFINITE · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 10 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%54%
INFINITE · 8 mapsnearly even -4%Nuclear TigeRES · 9 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%63%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +23%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
50%78%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
DefaultINFINITE pick
75%57%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +18%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickINFINITE take Default
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
6. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
INFINITE 20%Nuclear TigeRES 80%
The model gave 80% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
INFINITE 49%Nuclear TigeRES 51%
The model gave 51% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
INFINITE 32%Nuclear TigeRES 68%
The model gave 68% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 55%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3