NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy ban
50%62%
Inner Circle Academy · 6 mapsedge BIG Academy +12%BIG Academy · 9 maps
OverpassBIG Academy pick
67%69%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsnearly even -2%BIG Academy · 9 maps
AncientInner Circle Academy pick
56%67%
Inner Circle Academy · 5 mapsedge BIG Academy +11%BIG Academy · 5 maps
NukeBIG Academy ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%57%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%BIG Academy · 3 maps
MirageBIG Academy ban
57%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%BIG Academy · 2 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanBIG Academy remove Nuke
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Ancient
4. PickBIG Academy take Overpass
5. BanBIG Academy remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Inner Circle Academy 47%BIG Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
Inner Circle Academy 41%BIG Academy 59%
The model gave 59% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Ancientprediction correct2:13
Inner Circle Academy 38%BIG Academy 62%
The model gave 62% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 59%
Series resultBIG Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3