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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy ban
50%67%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge BRUTE +17%BRUTE · 8 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
56%45%
Inner Circle Academy · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%BRUTE · 7 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%46%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +4%BRUTE · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%45%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +5%BRUTE · 7 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
67%73%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +6%BRUTE · 7 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 0 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
67%40%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +27%BRUTE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct22:25
Inner Circle Academy 36%BRUTE 64%
The model gave 64% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Inner Circle Academy 52%BRUTE 48%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Inner Circle Academy 60%BRUTE 40%
The model gave 60% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 57%
Series resultBRUTE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3