ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#103 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entropy#132 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Entropy ban
57%25%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +32%Entropy · 16 maps
MirageEntropy pick
53%59%
Inner Circle Academy · 11 mapsedge Entropy +6%Entropy · 28 maps
AncientEntropy ban
52%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 19 mapsnearly even +2%Entropy · 18 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
59%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +9%Entropy · 10 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
56%47%
Inner Circle Academy · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +9%Entropy · 15 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
44%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 12 mapsnearly even +1%Entropy · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%45%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +5%Entropy · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickEntropy take Mirage
5. BanEntropy remove Ancient
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Inner Circle Academy 53%Entropy 47%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Inner Circle Academy 41%Entropy 59%
The model gave 59% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 63%
Series resultEntropy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2