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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
59%23%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +36%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
42%75%
Inner Circle Academy · 15 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +33%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
63%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 15 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +13%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
54%29%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +25%MOUZ NXT · 10 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
38%64%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +26%MOUZ NXT · 10 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
57%54%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsnearly even +3%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Inner Circle Academy 24%MOUZ NXT 76%
The model gave 76% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Inner Circle Academy 53%MOUZ NXT 47%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Inner Circle Academy 74%MOUZ NXT 26%
The model gave 74% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 51%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3