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Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sangal ban
63%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 31 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +30%Sangal · 5 maps
AncientSangal ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 4 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
61%63%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsnearly even -2%Sangal · 4 maps
NukeSangal pick
50%70%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsedge Sangal +20%Sangal · 6 maps
MirageInner Circle Academy ban
53%44%
Inner Circle Academy · 15 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +9%Sangal · 5 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
46%64%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsedge Sangal +18%Sangal · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
2. BanSangal remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickSangal take Nuke
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Inner Circle Academy 28%Sangal 72%
The model gave 72% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
Inner Circle Academy 53%Sangal 47%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 64%
Series resultSangal 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2