Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#39 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MIBR#13 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMIBR pick
58%59%
Inner Circle · 8 mapsnearly even -1%MIBR · 13 maps
AncientInner Circle pick
55%47%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +8%MIBR · 11 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
50%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 12 maps
CacheMIBR ban
60%64%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsnearly even -4%MIBR · 10 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%65%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge MIBR +15%MIBR · 13 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%57%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 3 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
40%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle take Ancient
4. PickMIBR take Mirage
5. BanMIBR remove Cache
6. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Inner Circle 61%MIBR 39%
The model gave 61% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by MIBR.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Inner Circle 47%MIBR 53%
The model gave 53% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 73%
Series resultMIBR 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2