Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientInner Circle ban
55%67%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +12%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
50%74%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +24%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 19 maps
Miragepossible decider
55%47%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +8%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 maps
CacheInner Circle pick
67%44%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +23%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%60%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%40%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas ban
40%57%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle take Cache
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Inner Circle 24%Ninjas in Pyjamas 76%
The model gave 76% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Inner Circle 63%Ninjas in Pyjamas 37%
The model gave 63% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 57%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2