Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINOX Division pick
70%41%
INOX Division · 19 mapsedge INOX Division +29%Lavked · 13 maps
Dust2INOX Division ban
60%56%
INOX Division · 16 mapsnearly even +4%Lavked · 14 maps
AncientLavked ban
60%38%
INOX Division · 16 mapsedge INOX Division +22%Lavked · 12 maps
InfernoLavked ban
65%43%
INOX Division · 22 mapsedge INOX Division +22%Lavked · 3 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%41%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +9%Lavked · 23 maps
AnubisLavked pick
50%62%
INOX Division · 10 mapsedge Lavked +12%Lavked · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%43%
INOX Division · 4 mapsedge INOX Division +7%Lavked · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickINOX Division take Nuke
4. PickLavked take Anubis
5. BanLavked remove Ancient
6. BanINOX Division remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
INOX Division 52%Lavked 48%
The model gave 52% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
INOX Division 74%Lavked 26%
The model gave 74% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 52%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2