ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINOX Division pick
72%64%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +8%MOUZ NXT · 7 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
65%30%
INOX Division · 13 mapsedge INOX Division +35%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
61%50%
INOX Division · 19 mapsedge INOX Division +11%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%71%
INOX Division · 12 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +15%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
42%43%
INOX Division · 8 mapsnearly even -1%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
50%60%
INOX Division · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%25%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +25%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickINOX Division take Nuke
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
6. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (56% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed16:14
INOX Division 37%MOUZ NXT 63%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
INOX Division 83%MOUZ NXT 17%
The model gave 83% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 71%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2