Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs predictionIPinsane playersloss 0:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Defaultinsane players ban
33%50%
insane players · 2 mapsedge girl kissers +17%girl kissers · 0 maps
Miragegirl kissers ban
50%40%
insane players · 0 mapsedge insane players +10%girl kissers · 1 map
Nukeinsane players pick
50%40%
insane players · 0 mapsedge insane players +10%girl kissers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Baninsane players remove Default
2. Bangirl kissers remove Mirage
3. Pickinsane players take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
insane players 33%girl kissers 67%
The model gave 67% on girl kissers — the map was taken by girl kissers.
Model check result
Model favoritegirl kissers · 50%
Series resultgirl kissers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1