Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Insidersloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
aimclub#94 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageaimclub pick
33%57%
Insiders · 2 mapsedge aimclub +24%aimclub · 10 maps
Dust2Insiders pick
50%42%
Insiders · 0 mapsedge Insiders +8%aimclub · 8 maps
Ancientaimclub ban
40%30%
Insiders · 1 mapedge Insiders +10%aimclub · 6 maps
InfernoInsiders ban
50%64%
Insiders · 0 mapsedge aimclub +14%aimclub · 7 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%60%
Insiders · 0 mapsedge aimclub +10%aimclub · 6 maps
CacheInsiders ban
50%44%
Insiders · 0 mapsedge Insiders +6%aimclub · 5 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
40%50%
Insiders · 1 mapedge aimclub +10%aimclub · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInsiders remove Inferno
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. PickInsiders take Dust2
4. Pickaimclub take Mirage
5. Banaimclub remove Ancient
6. BanInsiders remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
Insiders 64%aimclub 36%
The model gave 64% on Insiders — the map was taken by aimclub.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Insiders 55%aimclub 45%
The model gave 55% on Insiders — the map was taken by Insiders.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Insiders 27%aimclub 73%
The model gave 73% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 71%
Series resultaimclub 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3