CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Addiceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
64%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Addice · 1 map
Dust2Addice pick
73%67%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +6%Addice · 2 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Addice +30%Addice · 1 map
NukeIowa Stormboar ban
30%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Addice +20%Addice · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Addice · 1 map
AncientAddice ban
63%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +13%Addice · 0 maps
AnubisAddice ban
29%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Addice +11%Addice · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanAddice remove Ancient
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
4. PickAddice take Dust2
5. BanAddice remove Anubis
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Iowa Stormboar 28%Addice 72%
The model gave 72% on Addice — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Iowa Stormboar 58%Addice 42%
The model gave 58% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 61%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2