ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
62%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +22%Club 333 · 6 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%80%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Club 333 +50%Club 333 · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
70%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +20%Club 333 · 4 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar ban
30%33%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Club 333 · 2 maps
AncientClub 333 ban
63%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +23%Club 333 · 1 map
CacheClub 333 ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Club 333 · 1 map
AnubisClub 333 pick
29%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Club 333 +21%Club 333 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
4. PickClub 333 take Anubis
5. BanClub 333 remove Cache
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Iowa Stormboar 67%Club 333 33%
The model gave 67% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Iowa Stormboar 73%Club 333 27%
The model gave 73% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 65%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2