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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
40%64%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +24%Marsborne · 7 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
57%69%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +12%Marsborne · 9 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
33%73%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +40%Marsborne · 7 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
55%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +15%Marsborne · 1 map
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%63%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Marsborne · 4 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar pick
50%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 2 maps
OverpassMarsborne ban
50%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Dust2
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. BanMarsborne remove Overpass
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (40% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Iowa Stormboar 67%Marsborne 33%
The model gave 67% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct2:13
Iowa Stormboar 14%Marsborne 86%
The model gave 86% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 73%
Series resultMarsborne 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2