NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#168 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#72 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
46%79%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +33%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
54%83%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +29%SportsBetExpert · 8 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%71%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +41%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar pick
60%30%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +30%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
75%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +25%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Dust2
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (46% / 79%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed0:13
Iowa Stormboar 80%SportsBetExpert 20%
The model gave 80% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Mirageprediction correct13:16
Iowa Stormboar 17%SportsBetExpert 83%
The model gave 83% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 76%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2