NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#161 in the world · win 13:7series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 13:7
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
46%38%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +8%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
AncientWanted Goons ban
71%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +21%Wanted Goons · 8 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
50%44%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +6%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
Dust2Wanted Goons ban
50%29%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +21%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
33%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsedge Wanted Goons +17%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
OverpassIowa Stormboar ban
50%57%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
3. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
4. BanWanted Goons remove Dust2
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Overpass
6. BanWanted Goons remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (46% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Iowa Stormboar 56%Wanted Goons 44%
The model gave 56% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 51%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1