ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWanted Goons ban
62%30%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +32%Wanted Goons · 6 maps
AncientWanted Goons pick
71%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +31%Wanted Goons · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
30%29%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsnearly even +1%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar pick
67%33%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +34%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Wanted Goons +30%Wanted Goons · 1 map
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
33%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Wanted Goons +17%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
43%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Dust2
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (30% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Iowa Stormboar 78%Wanted Goons 22%
The model gave 78% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Cacheprediction missed16:13
Iowa Stormboar 46%Wanted Goons 54%
The model gave 54% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 65%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2