CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
63%67%
Iowa Stormboar · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Without a Roof · 14 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%65%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Without a Roof +35%Without a Roof · 13 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar ban
36%58%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +22%Without a Roof · 8 maps
AncientWithout a Roof pick
63%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +13%Without a Roof · 10 maps
Dust2Without a Roof ban
67%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 8 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +27%Without a Roof · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%57%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Without a Roof · 3 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
29%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +31%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
4. PickWithout a Roof take Ancient
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Dust2
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Nuke
DeciderCache (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Iowa Stormboar 73%Without a Roof 27%
The model gave 73% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Iowa Stormboar 48%Without a Roof 52%
The model gave 52% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 63%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2