ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#114 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
67%63%
Isurus · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Bounty Hunters · 4 maps
MirageIsurus ban
60%43%
Isurus · 1 mapedge Isurus +17%Bounty Hunters · 3 maps
AncientBounty Hunters pick
40%67%
Isurus · 1 mapedge Bounty Hunters +27%Bounty Hunters · 2 maps
DefaultBounty Hunters ban
60%50%
Isurus · 1 mapedge Isurus +10%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
60%50%
Isurus · 1 mapedge Isurus +10%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
NukeIsurus ban
50%60%
Isurus · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Nuke
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickBounty Hunters take Ancient
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Default
6. BanIsurus remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
Isurus 58%Bounty Hunters 42%
The model gave 58% on Isurus — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Isurus 23%Bounty Hunters 77%
The model gave 77% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 51%
Series resultBounty Hunters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2