ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · win 1:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
61%50%
Isurus · 14 mapsedge Isurus +11%MEIA NOITE · 12 maps
AncientIsurus ban
31%29%
Isurus · 9 mapsnearly even +2%MEIA NOITE · 13 maps
InfernoMEIA NOITE ban
45%57%
Isurus · 16 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +12%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
38%50%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +12%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
MirageIsurus ban
50%38%
Isurus · 6 mapsedge Isurus +12%MEIA NOITE · 9 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
67%33%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Isurus +34%MEIA NOITE · 5 maps
DefaultMEIA NOITE pick
60%73%
Isurus · 1 mapedge MEIA NOITE +13%MEIA NOITE · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Default
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Inferno
6. BanIsurus remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Isurus 36%MEIA NOITE 64%
The model gave 64% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 56%
Series resultIsurus 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1