ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#98 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ODDIK#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
64%50%
Isurus · 10 mapsedge Isurus +14%ODDIK · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
55%63%
Isurus · 7 mapsedge ODDIK +8%ODDIK · 4 maps
NukeODDIK pick
42%71%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge ODDIK +29%ODDIK · 3 maps
InfernoODDIK ban
50%50%
Isurus · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ODDIK · 0 maps
AncientIsurus ban
29%43%
Isurus · 3 mapsedge ODDIK +14%ODDIK · 3 maps
CacheODDIK ban
63%50%
Isurus · 4 mapsedge Isurus +13%ODDIK · 2 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
50%67%
Isurus · 0 mapsedge ODDIK +17%ODDIK · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Anubis
2. BanODDIK remove Inferno
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickODDIK take Nuke
5. BanODDIK remove Cache
6. BanIsurus remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
Isurus 32%ODDIK 68%
The model gave 68% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
Isurus 65%ODDIK 35%
The model gave 65% on Isurus — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Model check result
Model favoriteODDIK · 53%
Series resultODDIK 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2