ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Procyon#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoProcyon pick
40%65%
Isurus · 16 mapsedge Procyon +25%Procyon · 16 maps
Dust2Isurus pick
65%35%
Isurus · 13 mapsedge Isurus +30%Procyon · 16 maps
AncientIsurus ban
29%53%
Isurus · 10 mapsedge Procyon +24%Procyon · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
30%58%
Isurus · 6 mapsedge Procyon +28%Procyon · 8 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
50%62%
Isurus · 0 mapsedge Procyon +12%Procyon · 9 maps
MirageProcyon ban
50%67%
Isurus · 4 mapsedge Procyon +17%Procyon · 5 maps
CacheProcyon ban
67%50%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Isurus +17%Procyon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Anubis
2. BanProcyon remove Cache
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickProcyon take Inferno
5. BanProcyon remove Mirage
6. BanIsurus remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (30% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Isurus 24%Procyon 76%
The model gave 76% on Procyon — the map was taken by Procyon.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
Isurus 79%Procyon 21%
The model gave 79% on Isurus — the map was taken by Procyon.
Model check result
Model favoriteProcyon · 60%
Series resultProcyon 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2