PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Open Qualifier 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#114 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Turma do Pagodewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
67%56%
Isurus · 14 mapsedge Isurus +11%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
InfernoTurma do Pagode ban
53%33%
Isurus · 13 mapsedge Isurus +20%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
AncientIsurus ban
33%60%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +27%Turma do Pagode · 6 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
50%60%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +10%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
NukeIsurus ban
38%50%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +12%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode pick
60%60%
Isurus · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
67%40%
Isurus · 2 mapsedge Isurus +27%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Cache
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Inferno
6. BanIsurus remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Isurus 23%Turma do Pagode 77%
The model gave 77% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Infernoprediction missed14:16
Isurus 72%Turma do Pagode 28%
The model gave 72% on Isurus — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 81%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2