Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSuba#293 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Jam pick
50%29%
Jam · 0 mapsedge Jam +21%eSuba · 3 maps
InfernoeSuba pick
50%57%
Jam · 0 mapsedge eSuba +7%eSuba · 3 maps
NukeJam ban
50%50%
Jam · 0 mapsnearly even +0%eSuba · 2 maps
AncientJam ban
50%60%
Jam · 0 mapsedge eSuba +10%eSuba · 1 map
AnubiseSuba ban
50%40%
Jam · 0 mapsedge Jam +10%eSuba · 1 map
MirageeSuba ban
50%60%
Jam · 0 mapsedge eSuba +10%eSuba · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJam remove Ancient
2. BaneSuba remove Anubis
3. PickJam take Dust2
4. PickeSuba take Inferno
5. BaneSuba remove Mirage
6. BanJam remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
Jam 43%eSuba 57%
The model gave 57% on eSuba — the map was taken by Jam.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Jam 57%eSuba 43%
The model gave 57% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSuba · 50%
Series resultJam 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2