Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJam pick
75%64%
Jam · 4 mapsedge Jam +11%UNiTY · 10 maps
MirageJam ban
50%42%
Jam · 2 mapsedge Jam +8%UNiTY · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%45%
Jam · 2 mapsedge Jam +22%UNiTY · 7 maps
AnubisUNiTY ban
71%44%
Jam · 3 mapsedge Jam +27%UNiTY · 5 maps
InfernoUNiTY pick
60%44%
Jam · 1 mapedge Jam +16%UNiTY · 5 maps
CacheJam ban
50%44%
Jam · 0 mapsedge Jam +6%UNiTY · 5 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
71%40%
Jam · 3 mapsedge Jam +31%UNiTY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJam remove Cache
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickJam take Ancient
4. PickUNiTY take Inferno
5. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
6. BanJam remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (67% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Jam 60%UNiTY 40%
The model gave 60% on Jam — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Jam 73%UNiTY 27%
The model gave 73% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Jam 76%UNiTY 24%
The model gave 76% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Model check result
Model favoriteJam · 52%
Series resultJam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3