Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
JiJieHao#47 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBL#49 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJiJieHao pick
73%43%
JiJieHao · 11 mapsedge JiJieHao +30%BBL · 10 maps
CacheJiJieHao ban
42%31%
JiJieHao · 8 mapsedge JiJieHao +11%BBL · 9 maps
AncientBBL pick
55%58%
JiJieHao · 7 mapsnearly even -3%BBL · 8 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
50%53%
JiJieHao · 0 mapsnearly even -3%BBL · 15 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%54%
JiJieHao · 5 mapsnearly even +2%BBL · 9 maps
AnubisBBL ban
57%40%
JiJieHao · 10 mapsedge JiJieHao +17%BBL · 1 map
Dust2BBL ban
31%50%
JiJieHao · 9 mapsedge BBL +19%BBL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. PickJiJieHao take Mirage
4. PickBBL take Ancient
5. BanBBL remove Anubis
6. BanJiJieHao remove Cache
DeciderInferno (56% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
JiJieHao 49%BBL 51%
The model gave 51% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
JiJieHao 81%BBL 19%
The model gave 81% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
JiJieHao 62%BBL 38%
The model gave 62% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by JiJieHao.
Model check result
Model favoriteJiJieHao · 51%
Series resultJiJieHao 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3