Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#57 in the world · win 13:3series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 13:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientdJ uNT frIENDS ban
60%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +10%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
40%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge dJ uNT frIENDS +10%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge dJ uNT frIENDS +10%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
2. BandJ uNT frIENDS remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Johnny Speeds 60%dJ uNT frIENDS 40%
The model gave 60% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 79%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 13:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1