NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageex-RUBY pick
44%56%
Johnny Speeds · 5 mapsedge ex-RUBY +12%ex-RUBY · 5 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
57%67%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 5 maps
AncientJohnny Speeds pick
57%29%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +28%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%38%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +22%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%75%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +25%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
29%50%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge ex-RUBY +21%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
67%50%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Ancient
4. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
5. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Johnny Speeds 37%ex-RUBY 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
Johnny Speeds 74%ex-RUBY 26%
The model gave 74% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 65%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2