Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#57 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 6:13
INFINITE#56 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientINFINITE ban
67%50%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%INFINITE · 0 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
40%60%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge INFINITE +20%INFINITE · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
40%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%INFINITE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
2. BanINFINITE remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Johnny Speeds 31%INFINITE 69%
The model gave 69% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 51%
Series resultINFINITE 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1