Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#57 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
INFINITE#56 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
43%71%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge INFINITE +28%INFINITE · 3 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
50%60%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge INFINITE +10%INFINITE · 1 map
AncientJohnny Speeds pick
67%50%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%INFINITE · 0 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
60%40%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +20%INFINITE · 1 map
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%60%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +10%INFINITE · 1 map
OverpassINFINITE ban
60%50%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +10%INFINITE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Ancient
4. PickINFINITE take Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Johnny Speeds 53%INFINITE 47%
The model gave 53% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Johnny Speeds 37%INFINITE 63%
The model gave 63% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Johnny Speeds 23%INFINITE 77%
The model gave 77% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 58%
Series resultINFINITE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3