CCT 2026 Europe Series 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
53%70%
Just Players · 34 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
38%73%
Just Players · 25 mapsedge Butterfly +35%Butterfly · 7 maps
AncientButterfly pick
61%78%
Just Players · 24 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 5 maps
NukeJust Players ban
47%55%
Just Players · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +8%Butterfly · 7 maps
DefaultButterfly ban
67%57%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge Just Players +10%Butterfly · 3 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
70%40%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge Just Players +30%Butterfly · 1 map
CacheJust Players ban
33%67%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge Butterfly +34%Butterfly · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Cache
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Default
6. BanJust Players remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (38% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Just Players 35%Butterfly 65%
The model gave 65% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Just Players.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Just Players 40%Butterfly 60%
The model gave 60% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Just Players 31%Butterfly 69%
The model gave 69% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 66%
Series resultButterfly 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3