ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
56%38%
Just Players · 12 mapsedge Just Players +18%Entropy · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Just Players · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 8 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
33%44%
Just Players · 11 mapsedge Entropy +11%Entropy · 5 maps
AnubisEntropy pick
71%50%
Just Players · 3 mapsedge Just Players +21%Entropy · 10 maps
OverpassEntropy ban
60%38%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge Just Players +22%Entropy · 4 maps
NukeJust Players ban
42%40%
Just Players · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Entropy · 1 map
DefaultJust Players ban
50%60%
Just Players · 4 mapsedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Nuke
2. BanEntropy remove Overpass
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickEntropy take Anubis
5. BanEntropy remove Dust2
6. BanJust Players remove Default
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct4:13
Just Players 47%Entropy 53%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by Entropy.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Just Players 71%Entropy 29%
The model gave 71% on Just Players — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 61%
Series resultEntropy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2