Kibertochka Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
38%58%
Just Players · 22 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +20%ex-RUSTEC · 22 maps
MirageJust Players pick
52%67%
Just Players · 29 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +15%ex-RUSTEC · 8 maps
NukeJust Players ban
31%45%
Just Players · 12 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%ex-RUSTEC · 16 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%57%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +7%ex-RUSTEC · 17 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
64%50%
Just Players · 21 mapedge Just Players +14%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
33%38%
Just Players · 8 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +5%ex-RUSTEC · 9 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%50%
Just Players · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUSTEC · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. BanJust Players remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Just Players 37%ex-RUSTEC 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by Just Players.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Just Players 29%ex-RUSTEC 71%
The model gave 71% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Just Players 43%ex-RUSTEC 57%
The model gave 57% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 53%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3