Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
40%64%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +24%ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 maps
NukeJust Players ban
50%58%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
MirageJust Players pick
55%44%
Just Players · 7 mapsedge Just Players +11%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
55%50%
Just Players · 7 mapsedge Just Players +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%40%
Just Players · 1 mapedge Just Players +20%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%45%
Just Players · 0 mapsedge Just Players +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Overpassex-Zero Tenacity ban
63%40%
Just Players · 4 mapsedge Just Players +23%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Overpass
6. BanJust Players remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
Just Players 72%ex-Zero Tenacity 28%
The model gave 72% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
Just Players 39%ex-Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Just Players 60%ex-Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 57%
Series resultJust Players 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3