NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
54%31%
Just Players · 35 mapsedge Just Players +23%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
38%30%
Just Players · 25 mapsedge Just Players +8%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
AncientJust Players ban
59%60%
Just Players · 25 mapsnearly even -1%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
44%60%
Just Players · 14 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +16%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
70%43%
Just Players · 6 mapsedge Just Players +27%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
CacheJust Players ban
33%63%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +30%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge Just Players +7%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Cache
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
6. BanJust Players remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Just Players 21%MOUZ NXT 79%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Just Players 60%MOUZ NXT 40%
The model gave 60% on Just Players — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 59%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2