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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BORING PLAYERS#336 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBORING PLAYERS pick
38%50%
Just Swing · 9 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +12%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
CacheBORING PLAYERS ban
67%50%
Just Swing · 8 mapsedge Just Swing +17%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
42%50%
Just Swing · 8 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +8%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
InfernoJust Swing ban
44%50%
Just Swing · 5 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +6%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
57%50%
Just Swing · 3 mapsedge Just Swing +7%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
DefaultBORING PLAYERS ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
2. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Cache
3. PickJust Swing take Nuke
4. PickBORING PLAYERS take Ancient
5. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Default
6. BanJust Swing remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Just Swing 42%BORING PLAYERS 58%
The model gave 58% on BORING PLAYERS — the map was taken by BORING PLAYERS.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Just Swing 60%BORING PLAYERS 40%
The model gave 60% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Just Swing 42%BORING PLAYERS 58%
The model gave 58% on BORING PLAYERS — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 72%
Series resultJust Swing 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3