ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#173 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisJust Swing pick
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Inferno
3. PickJust Swing take Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Just Swing 50%Chinggis Warriors 50%
The model gave 50% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Just Swing 47%Chinggis Warriors 53%
The model gave 53% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Infernoprediction missed12:16
Just Swing 60%Chinggis Warriors 40%
The model gave 60% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 69%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3