FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#173 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%44%
Just Swing · 6 mapsnearly even -4%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
67%42%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +25%Chinggis Warriors · 8 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
44%29%
Just Swing · 5 mapsedge Just Swing +15%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%50%
Just Swing · 3 mapsedge Just Swing +7%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
63%40%
Just Swing · 4 mapsedge Just Swing +23%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%33%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
6. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Just Swing 54%Chinggis Warriors 46%
The model gave 54% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Just Swing 69%Chinggis Warriors 31%
The model gave 69% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 63%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2