ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The QUBE#243 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientThe QUBE pick
40%50%
Just Swing · 6 mapsedge The QUBE +10%The QUBE · 0 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%50%
Just Swing · 6 mapsedge The QUBE +10%The QUBE · 0 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
63%50%
Just Swing · 4 mapsedge Just Swing +13%The QUBE · 0 maps
InfernoJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 4 mapsnearly even +0%The QUBE · 0 maps
NukeThe QUBE ban
67%50%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +17%The QUBE · 0 maps
DefaultThe QUBE ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%The QUBE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
2. BanThe QUBE remove Nuke
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickThe QUBE take Ancient
5. BanThe QUBE remove Default
6. BanJust Swing remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Just Swing 37%The QUBE 63%
The model gave 63% on The QUBE — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Just Swing 65%The QUBE 35%
The model gave 65% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 67%
Series resultJust Swing 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2