Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
44%65%
K27 · 5 mapsedge Acend +21%Acend · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
63%50%
K27 · 4 mapsedge K27 +13%Acend · 12 maps
OverpassK27 pick
56%33%
K27 · 5 mapsedge K27 +23%Acend · 8 maps
AncientAcend ban
60%50%
K27 · 6 mapsedge K27 +10%Acend · 6 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%45%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +5%Acend · 7 maps
NukeAcend ban
30%50%
K27 · 6 mapsedge Acend +20%Acend · 0 maps
AnubisK27 ban
43%50%
K27 · 3 mapsedge Acend +7%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickK27 take Overpass
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
K27 28%Acend 72%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by K27.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
K27 63%Acend 37%
The model gave 63% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 56%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2