PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Open Qualifier 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
K27#34 in the world · win 13:3series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 13:3
Butterfly#76 in the world · loss 3:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%63%
K27 · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 12 maps
MirageButterfly ban
67%67%
K27 · 17 mapsnearly even +0%Butterfly · 8 maps
NukeK27 ban
33%64%
K27 · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +31%Butterfly · 10 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
62%57%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +5%Butterfly · 10 maps
CacheK27 ban
53%71%
K27 · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +18%Butterfly · 3 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%23%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +27%Butterfly · 9 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
50%40%
K27 · 6 mapsedge K27 +10%Butterfly · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. BanK27 remove Nuke
4. BanButterfly remove Dust2
5. BanK27 remove Cache
6. BanButterfly remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (56% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
K27 22%Butterfly 78%
The model gave 78% on Butterfly — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 66%
Series resultK27 13:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1