Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
50%50%
K27 · 14 mapsnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 14 maps
MirageK27 pick
67%64%
K27 · 17 mapsnearly even +3%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
CacheCYBERSHOKE ban
48%63%
K27 · 19 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +15%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
Dust2K27 ban
42%58%
K27 · 8 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +16%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
NukeK27 ban
42%60%
K27 · 15 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +18%CYBERSHOKE · 6 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
64%33%
K27 · 7 mapsedge K27 +31%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
K27 · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +7%CYBERSHOKE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Dust2
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Cache
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
K27 47%CYBERSHOKE 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by K27.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
K27 35%CYBERSHOKE 65%
The model gave 65% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 68%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2