Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
58%41%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +17%Phantom · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%58%
K27 · 5 mapsedge K27 +9%Phantom · 15 maps
NukeK27 ban
27%63%
K27 · 7 mapsedge Phantom +36%Phantom · 12 maps
AncientPhantom ban
58%50%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +8%Phantom · 10 maps
OverpassK27 ban
60%67%
K27 · 6 mapsedge Phantom +7%Phantom · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
43%67%
K27 · 3 mapsedge Phantom +24%Phantom · 2 maps
DefaultPhantom pick
33%50%
K27 · 2 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickPhantom take Default
5. BanPhantom remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (67% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
K27 17%Phantom 83%
The model gave 83% on Phantom — the map was taken by K27.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
K27 61%Phantom 39%
The model gave 61% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 66%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2