Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#34 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
68%56%
K27 · 18 mapsedge K27 +12%Virtus.pro · 14 maps
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
62%60%
K27 · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Virtus.pro · 21 map
NukeK27 ban
37%60%
K27 · 15 mapsedge Virtus.pro +23%Virtus.pro · 11 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
55%67%
K27 · 16 mapsedge Virtus.pro +12%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
CacheK27 ban
53%56%
K27 · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
55%42%
K27 · 7 mapsedge K27 +13%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%55%
K27 · 2 mapsedge K27 +12%Virtus.pro · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Nuke
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (67% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
K27 60%Virtus.pro 40%
The model gave 60% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
K27 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on K27 — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
K27 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 50%
Series resultK27 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3