Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#34 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
68%55%
K27 · 21 mapedge K27 +13%Virtus.pro · 16 maps
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
57%60%
K27 · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Virtus.pro · 21 map
NukeK27 ban
38%57%
K27 · 17 mapsedge Virtus.pro +19%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
CacheK27 ban
50%60%
K27 · 18 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
57%67%
K27 · 17 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
62%38%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +24%Virtus.pro · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%55%
K27 · 2 mapsedge K27 +12%Virtus.pro · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Nuke
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (67% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
K27 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
K27 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2